Nigeria has 0.3% chance of winning World Cup — UBS

A top investment bank, UBS, has released an e-book titled ‘Investing and Football’ in which it detailed and extrapolated which teams have the greatest chance to win the 2018 FIFA World Cup, starting in Russia on June 14.

Nigeria’s national football team, the Super Eagles, is one of 32 teams at the tournament and UBS gave them a 0.3 per cent chance of winning the trophy. UBS’ analogy and the conclusion were predicated on what, “investors can learn from successful football teams”.

Going through Gernot Rohr’s 30-man provisional list shows agility, a little lack of balance and a definite window to work on the calmness of his team because of a preponderance of players below 23.

Rohr showed his hand with the list – a team for the future! The 30-man list has an average age of 24.96, and the eight-man midfield list shows the most experience – 25.12.

According to them, “Germany, Brazil, and Spain have the highest likelihood to win the tournament.”

A section of the UBS book also highlighted qualities that a team needs to possess succeed in Russia.

They called it, “Agility. Balance. Calm”.

These three “attributes complement teamwork and can transform a successful team into a future champion,” it says.

A part of it is reproduced below:


Agile teams can adjust their play to different opponents. Playing against a team with a very defensive lineup requires different tactics than against a free-flowing attacking team. Teams need the ability to swiftly adapt to sudden, unexpected changes during the game: An injury, a red card, or conceding an early goal can force teams to adjust their tactics quickly.


Balance is another important attribute. A successful team needs top players in all positions. Keeper, defenders, midfielders, strikers, and a strong back up of reserve players on the sidelines.

A few exceptional players can decide a game single-handedly. But the road to the final is long, and even the best players might be marked out of the game or could simply have an off day.


And finally calm. Even the most experienced teams risk discarding their game plan when time is running out. And the coolest forward might miss a simple shot or a penalty under pressure. The teams who can control their nerves and stick to their tactics for the entire 90 minutes (or longer) have a greater chance of success.

But despite the above, UBS also added, “Be systematic. Not all of our predictions will be right. Some games are hard to call and others will simply end with a big surprise.” We want to be surprised!

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