Will Tinubu Defeat Atiku In The Northern Part…
Ahead of the February 2023 Presidential election in Nigeria, the citizens of the country do not doubt that whoever will win the presidency must make great strides in the northern region of the country.
Nigeria already knows that the race is already set between three frontline candidates, Bola Tinubu from the South West, Peter Obi from the South-East and Atiku Abubakar from the North-East.
There is no doubt that the three frontline candidates will be evaluating the key factors that will influence the elections through deploying their commanders and resources.
Note that voting patterns over time have shown that Northerners are often more politically inclined and have the numbers to shore up a candidate’s chances.
A bit of a trip down history lane shows that during the 1959 House of Representatives elections, the North had the highest number of registered voters with 3,640,284 compared to 2,653,188 in the West (excluding Lagos Territory) and 2,598,234 in the Eastern region.
When it came to the action, 3,258,520 voters exercised their franchise in the North while 1,887,209 did in the West and 1,929,754 in the East.
In the long run, the outcome of the 1959 poll was an overwhelming victory for the Northern People’s Congress (NPC) and Allies who secured 148 seats out of 312 seats.
Fast-forward to the 1979 Presidential elections which bear very striking familiarities with the candidates’ composition for 2023, Shehu Shagari of the National Party of Nigeria (NPN) defeated Obafemi Awolowo of the United party of Nigeria (UPN) and Nnamdi Azikiwe of the Nigerians Peoples Party (NPP).
A look at the results shows that of the 10 northern states (there were 19 states at the time), Shagari won in 7 states and 2 in the South. He was only defeated by Aminu Kano in Kano, Waziri Ibrahim who captured Borno and Azikiwe who pulled a surprising win in the North Central State of Plateau.
The result was hugely similar in 1983 as Shagari defeated familiar foes thanks to a huge following in the North.
The results gave the perception that a Northerner would always triumph over anyone else from any other part of the country because of their overwhelming numbers.
However, the tale was different in 1993 when M. K. O. Abiola convincingly looked set to be declared the winner of the election, taking key states in the North including defeating his rival, Bashir Tofa in his home state, Kano.
Abiola, like Tinubu of the APC at the time, was an avowed Muslim who defied the norm of balance and opted for a Muslim running mate, Bashir Tofa to strengthen his hold on the Muslim Northern States.
Notably, the 1993 election was also different in the sense that it was the first time since the history of elections in Nigeria that the electorate discarded the usual divisive factors of religion, geography and ethnicity.
In 2011, either by dint of luck or malfeasance, Goodluck Jonathan secured sufficient support across the country over Muhammadu Buhari and Ribadu
Jonathan was not so lucky in 2015, as he lost in almost all Northern States safe Christian populated areas of Plateau, Nassarawa and the FCT in the North Central and Taraba in the North East.
The race for 2023 has an unclear projection. Like Abiola, Tinubu has a Muslim running mate, he has sufficient footsoldiers in the North Eastern States of Gombe, Yobe and Borno.
He’ll however be worried by the fact that his main challenger Atiku, comes from the same region and has his party in control of the other three states that make up the North East; Adamawa, Bauchi and Taraba.
They’ll have to battle for roughly 12 million votes there.
Tinubu may as well turn to the most populated voting region, the North West, where his party has strong footings in Jigawa, Kano, Katsina, Kano, Sokoto, Kebbi and Zamfara.
However, questions persist as to if Tinubu would be able to retain the level of cult-like support Buhari enjoyed in the last two elections with strong North/South sentiments at play in this poll.
Do you think Tinubu will be able to beat Atiku in the North, especially the North West? Drop your projections…..
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