President Tinubu’s Fate Hangs in the Balance as Tribunal Considers 25% FCT Votes

President Bola Ahmedu Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress, APC, who won the 2023 presidential election, has raised alarm over the possibility of losing his seat to his main challengers, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, and Mr. Peter Obi of the Labour Party, LP, who have dragged him to the Presidential Election Petition Tribunal, PEPT.

The bone of contention is that Tinubu did not secure 25 percent of the lawful votes cast in the Federal Capital Territory, FCT, Abuja, as required by the constitution.

Tinubu, who contested the February 25 presidential election and was declared the winner by the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, after polling 8,794,726 votes to beat Atiku who got 6, 984, 520 votes and Obi who garnered 6,101,533 votes, has urged the tribunal to dismiss the petition against him.

He argued that his failure to obtain 25 percent in the FCT was inconsequential since he had met the threshold in about 30 states of the federation. He warned that any attempt to remove him from office on such flimsy ground could plunge the country into chaos and anarchy.

However, Atiku and Obi have insisted that Tinubu’s victory was marred by widespread irregularities and malpractices such as voters’ intimidation and suppression, ballot box snatching and destruction, over-voting, results manipulations, thuggery, vote buying, INEC’s failure to abide by its own rules and procedures, physical assault on voters, among others. They have presented pictures, videos and documentary evidence to the tribunal to prove their allegations.

Apart from these, Atiku and Obi have also hinged their petition on the constitutional provision that stipulates that a candidate must score at least 25 percent of the total valid votes cast in each of at least two-thirds of all the states in the federation and the FCT before he or she can be declared president. They have argued that Tinubu did not meet this requirement as he failed to get 25 percent in the FCT.

The issue of Tinubu’s performance in the FCT seems to be the most critical point in the petition as it is a constitutional matter that does not need any witness testimony. The tribunal is expected to rule on this issue soon and determine whether Tinubu’s election was valid or not.

The outcome of this case could have far-reaching implications for Nigeria’s democracy and stability. Nigerians have been following the proceedings at the tribunal with keen interest and anxiety.

Analysts agree that the 2023 general elections witnessed unprecedented political awareness and participation among Nigerians. They also agree that the political atmosphere has been tense and volatile since Tinubu was declared and sworn in as president.

Tinubu’s Lawyers Argue that FCT is Not a Special State

President Tinubu’s legal counsel, Wole Olanipekun, has submitted a final written address to the tribunal, urging it to dismiss the petition against his client. He argued that the FCT is the 37th state for electoral purposes and that any other interpretation would “lead to absurdity, chaos, anarchy and alteration of the very intention of the legislature.”

Olanipekun said that the petition is novel but not familiar with the electoral law, as the petitioners are not complaining about the usual electoral malpractices, but about a constitutional provision that requires a presidential candidate to score 25 percent of the votes in two-thirds of the 36 states and the FCT.

He said that Tinubu, who scored 25 percent of the votes in about 30 states, has met the constitutional requirement and should not be denied his victory because he failed to get 25 percent in the FCT. He said that the word “and” as used in the constitution does not mean that the FCT is different from the 36 states, but rather that it is part of them.

He said that Tinubu’s legal team agrees with those who believe that the court should adopt a purposeful approach to interpreting the constitution and consider what will best serve national interest and unity. He said that the court should not give an extreme interpretation that could spark chaos or treat residents of the FCT as more special than residents of other states.

He said: “In concluding our arguments on this issue, we urge the court to hold that any election where the electorates exercise their plebiscite, there is neither a ‘royal’ ballot nor ‘royal’ voter; and that residents of the FCT do not have any special voting right over residents of any other state of the federation.”

Tinubu’s Threat of Anarchy Draws Criticism from Opponents

President Tinubu’s legal counsel has also argued that 25 percent votes cast in the FCT is not a mandatory requirement for a president to emerge. They have cited the absence of punctuation in section 134(2)(b) of the constitution, which states that a candidate must score 25 percent of the votes in two-thirds of the states and the FCT. They have claimed that the word “and” in the section is conjunctive and not disjunctive, and that the FCT is treated as if it is the 37th state by virtue of section 299 of the constitution.

However, President Tinubu’s remark that removing him as president over his failure to score 25 percent of the votes cast in the FCT could lead to chaos and anarchy in the country has provoked backlash from his opponents.

The President of the Middle Belt Forum (MBF), Dr. Pogu Bitrus, described President Tinubu as a joker for making such a statement.

He said that nobody is above the constitution and that if the court interprets the constitution to mean that the FCT is additional to the two-thirds of the states, then President Tinubu has no choice but to accept it. He said that President Tinubu cannot tell Nigerians that he is above the constitution and the laws of the nation.

He said: “He cannot tell us that he is above the constitution and the laws of the nation. If the Supreme Court interprets it that way according to the law and the constitution, then it is above not only him, but also above every other Nigerian like him. This is because the constitution is the grundnorm; it is superior to every other law that we have in Nigeria. It is the only thing that is binding us together.

“So, if the constitution interprets it that way, it is not how I feel or how he or any other person feels because the law is not a respecter of persons. He cannot tell us that there will be anarchy in the land if the tribunal interprets the constitution. The country and the constitution are above him.”

Also, a legal practitioner, Marcellus Onah disagreed with President Tinubu’s threat of anarchy. He said that only a few of his supporters might want to cause trouble, but they would be contained by the security agents.

He said that President Tinubu cannot intimidate anybody because he is not more Nigerian than anybody. He said that nobody is above the law and that the constitution is the only document that guides how everybody operates in Nigeria.

He said: “What does he mean by anarchy in the land? Yes, a few of his supporters might want to cause trouble but that will be in Lagos only, not even in any other South West states. And I am sure the security agents will know what to do in such circumstances.

“So, he cannot threaten anybody because he is not more Nigerian than anybody. Besides, nobody is above the law. The constitution is the only document that guides how everybody operates in Nigeria, so nobody should claim to be above it.

“If the tribunal has established that he did not get 25 percent of the votes cast in the FCT, there is nothing anybody can do. That is just it and no amount of threat from him can change anything. The constitution must prevail at all times. That is the only thing that will make the outside world respect us as a nation.”

Will Tinubu survive this legal battle or will he be ousted by his rivals? The answer lies with the tribunal.

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