Buhari’s legacy: A tale of promises and performance

This blog evaluates the legacy of President Muhammadu Buhari, who came to power in 2015 with high expectations from Nigerians. It examines his promises and performance in three major areas: security, economy and corruption. It also highlights his achievements and failures in other sectors such as infrastructure, education, health and diplomacy. It concludes that Buhari’s legacy is a mixed bag of successes and challenges that will be subject to different interpretations by historians and analysts.

Ilesanmi AdekanbiMay 21, 2023

4 minutes read

President Muhammadu Buhari came to power in 2015 with a lot of expectations from Nigerians. He promised to tackle the three major challenges facing the country: security, economy and corruption. He also pledged to fix the infrastructure deficit, improve the quality of education and health, and unite the nation. As he prepares to leave office in 2023, how well has he delivered on his promises? What are his achievements and failures? How will history judge his legacy?

Security: From Boko Haram to banditry

One of the main reasons Nigerians voted for Buhari in 2015 was his perceived competence in handling security issues. He had a reputation as a former military head of state who could deal decisively with the Boko Haram insurgency that had ravaged the North-East and other parts of the country. He also vowed to end the menace of kidnapping, armed robbery, cultism and communal clashes.

In his first term, Buhari made some progress in degrading the capacity of Boko Haram to hold territories and launch large-scale attacks. He relocated the military command centre to Maiduguri, the epicentre of the insurgency, and boosted the morale and equipment of the troops. He also collaborated with neighbouring countries to form a Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) to combat cross-border terrorism.

However, in his second term, the security situation deteriorated as new threats emerged. Bandits, armed herdsmen, unknown gunmen and secessionist agitators unleashed violence and terror on different parts of the country. Kidnapping for ransom became rampant, especially of schoolchildren and travellers. Farmers and herders clashed over land and resources, leading to deaths and displacements. Attacks on security formations and personnel increased, undermining the authority of the state.

According to various reports, Nigeria witnessed more deaths under Buhari’s administration than in previous civilian regimes since 1999. Data from Nigeria Security Tracker (NST) showed that no fewer than 54,948 people were killed as of May 2020. A breakdown showed that an average of 21 people were killed daily as of 2020.

The Global Terrorism Index (GTI) ranked Nigeria as the third most terrorised country in the world in 2020, after Afghanistan and Iraq. The report noted that Nigeria recorded an increase in terrorism-related deaths by 25 per cent in 2019.

Buhari’s response to the security challenges has been criticised as slow, ineffective and insensitive. He has been accused of being aloof, detached and indifferent to the plight of Nigerians. He has also been blamed for not changing his service chiefs earlier, despite calls from various quarters. His appointments of security heads have also been seen as lopsided and favouring a particular region and religion.

Economy: From recession to recovery

Buhari inherited an economy that was already in decline due to falling oil prices, corruption and mismanagement. He promised to diversify the economy, create jobs, reduce poverty and improve living standards.

However, his economic policies have been described as inconsistent, unclear and contradictory by some analysts. He has also faced two recessions in his tenure, one in 2016 and another in 2020, triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic and low oil prices.

The economy has recovered from the recessions but at a slow pace. The growth rate was 0.51 per cent in the first quarter of 2021, compared to 3.10 per cent in 2015. The GDP was $440.8 billion in 2021, down from $493.3 billion in 2015.

The inflation rate rose from nine per cent in 2015 to 18.12 per cent in April 2021, making Nigeria one of the countries with the highest inflation rates in Africa. The exchange rate also depreciated from N197 per dollar in 2015 to N410 per dollar in May 2021.

The poverty rate increased from 40 per cent in 2015 to 40.1 per cent in 2019, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). This means that about 82.9 million Nigerians are living below the poverty line of N137,430 ($381) per year.

The unemployment rate rose from 10.4 per cent in 2015 to 33.3 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2020, according to NBS. This means that about 23.2 million Nigerians are unemployed.

The debt profile also increased from $10.32 billion in 2015 to $32.86 billion as of December 2020, according to the Debt Management Office (DMO). This represents an increase of about 218 per cent.

Buhari’s supporters have argued that his administration has made some achievements in the economic sector despite the challenges. They have cited some reforms such as:

The Treasury Single Account (TSA) which consolidated all government revenues into one account and improved transparency and accountability.
The Integrated Payroll and Personnel Information System (IPPIS) which eliminated ghost workers and saved billions of naira for the government.
The Presidential Enabling Business Environment Council (PEBEC) which implemented various reforms to improve the ease of doing business in Nigeria.
The Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP) which provided a roadmap for economic diversification and growth.
The Finance Acts of 2019 and 2020 which introduced various fiscal measures to boost revenue generation and support businesses.
The Social Investment Programme (SIP) which provided cash transfers, school feeding, trader moni and N-power schemes for millions of Nigerians.
The Economic Sustainability Plan (ESP) which provided stimulus packages for various sectors affected by the COVID-19 pandemic.
The Deep Offshore and Inland Basin Production Sharing Contracts (Amendment) Act which increased Nigeria’s share of revenue from oil production contracts with international oil companies.
The Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) which reformed the oil and gas sector by creating new regulatory institutions, providing for host community development trust funds, reducing gas flaring penalties and setting a timeline for gas flare-out.

Corruption: From rhetoric to reality

Buhari campaigned on a strong anti-corruption platform, vowing to recover looted funds, prosecute corrupt officials and end impunity in public service.

He established various mechanisms such as:

The Presidential Advisory Committee Against Corruption (PACAC) which provided policy guidance and coordination for anti-corruption agencies.
The Whistleblower Policy which encouraged citizens to report cases of corruption and offered rewards for credible information.
The Asset Recovery Committee which oversaw the management and disposal of recovered assets.
The Open Government Partnership (OGP) which committed Nigeria to implementing various reforms on transparency, accountability and citizen participation.

He also supported the operations of anti-corruption agencies such as:

The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) which secured over 8,000 convictions between 2015 and May 2023 and recovered billions of naira in assets and cash from corrupt individuals and entities.