Tinubu’s Military Showdown with Niger Junta Sparks Panic in the North

The recent coup in Niger Republic has plunged the West African region into a state of uncertainty and tension. The military junta that ousted the democratically elected president, Mohamed Bazoum, last week has refused to bow to the pressure from the regional bloc, ECOWAS, led by its chairman, President Bola Tinubu of Nigeria.

ECOWAS had given the junta a seven-day ultimatum to restore democracy or face severe sanctions, including border closure, electricity cut-off, flight ban, goods blockade, and possible military intervention. The ultimatum was issued after an emergency meeting in Abuja, Nigeria, on July 27.

President Tinubu had also sent a high-level delegation to Niger on August 3 to persuade the coup leaders to step down peacefully. The delegation comprised of former Nigerian Head of State, General Abdulsalami Abubakar (Rtd), the Sultan of Sokoto, Alhaji Muhammad Sa’ad Abubakar III, and the President of the ECOWAS Commission, H.E. Omar Alieu Touray.

However, the delegation’s efforts have been met with stiff resistance from the junta, which has vowed to remain in power until it organizes a transition. The junta is led by Colonel Major Amadou Abdramane, who accused Bazoum’s government of poor governance and failure to tackle security and other challenges facing the country.

The junta has also reportedly established ties with Russia and other powerful nations that may support its cause. On Friday, pro-junta supporters staged a massive protest in Niamey, the capital city of Niger, where they denounced ECOWAS and Tinubu for interfering in their internal affairs.

As the deadline for the ultimatum draws near, President Tinubu has sought the approval of the Nigerian Senate for a military action against the junta in Niger. He made this request in a letter read by the Senate President, Godswill Akpabio, on Friday.

This move has triggered fear and fury among Nigerians, especially those living in the northern part of the country, which shares a long border with Niger. Many fear that a military confrontation may escalate the violence and instability in the region, which is already plagued by insurgency, banditry, and kidnapping.

Some Nigerians have also expressed doubt and criticism over Tinubu’s decision to use force against a sovereign nation without exhausting all diplomatic options. They argue that Nigeria should focus on its own internal problems rather than meddling in other countries’ affairs.

Several voices from the north have cautioned Tinubu and ECOWAS against the use of military force in Niger. An Islamic preacher in Kano, Dr Muhammad Sani Umar Rijiyar Lemo, warned Tinubu against leading Nigeria to invade Niger in a viral video on Friday. He said that war would have severe consequences for the people of both countries and urged ECOWAS to find a peaceful means of resolving the issues.

The Northern Senators Forum also issued a statement on Friday, calling for political and diplomatic means to restore democratic government in Niger. The forum, led by Senator Abdul Ahmad Ningi (Bauchi), said that military force would cause the death of many innocent citizens in Niger and seven Nigerian states that share a border with Niger. The forum appealed to ECOWAS to exhaust all avenues before resorting to war.

The National President of the Arewa Youth Consultative Forum, AYCF, Alhaji Yerima Shettima, also revealed on Saturday that any attempt to embark on military intervention in Niger would have a direct effect on northerners. He urged President Tinubu and the Senate to ensure that all diplomatic means have been exhausted before embarking on military action against the junta. He said that Nigeria was not prepared to go to war now and that it was too early to be talking about invading another country.

However, hours after Tinubu’s letter to the Senate, the security committee of ECOWAS, comprising military chiefs of some West African countries, said they would give diplomacy a chance in Niger over the current activities of the junta in the country.

The chiefs assured that there would be an intensified diplomatic effort to engage with all relevant stakeholders and ensure that dialogue and negotiation is at the forefront of the approach to resolve the crisis in Republic of Niger. They said that they would respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Niger and work towards a peaceful and lasting solution.

The situation in Niger is a test for Tinubu’s leadership and diplomacy as the head of ECOWAS. It also has huge implications for democracy and security in West Africa and beyond. How Tinubu handles this crisis may determine his legacy and reputation as a regional leader.

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