Ahead of the governorship elections in Ekiti and Osun states in mid-2022, the analysts look at the internal schisms in the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), including how the crises could impact the elections.
With the conclusion of the governorship election in Anambra State, attention has shifted to Ekiti and Osun states where two off-cycle guber elections hold inside eight months from now.
The stage is naturally being prepared for another round of epic battles between the two dominant parties in the states, the All Progressives Congress (APC), which is the ruling party in the two states at the moment, and the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is boasting it has retooled to retake the states.
PDP lost Osun on November 26, 2010, via a judicial pronouncement, while it was kicked out of Ekiti in July 2018. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has since slated the elections to hold in Ekiti and Osun for June 18, 2022, and July 16, 2022, respectively.
For the major parties, the elections do not just signpost a renewal of bitter rivalry. There is the 2023 general election context playing out in the preparations for the guber polls by the parties, especially as far as the South-West geopolitical zone is concerned.
The lay of the political land in the zone currently favours the APC which sits atop five out of the six states there are. The broom party boasts it will retain the two states. But the opposition PDP is roaring a big comeback, one that will only be akin to the 2003 sweeping victory episode when it controlled five of the six states.
Notwithstanding their boasts, APC and PDP are being quaked by internal schisms in the two states.
Unease in Ekiti APC, PDP
The political tension in Ekiti state is also rising and political parties including the gladiators are back in the trenches strategising ahead of the next governorship poll.
From the look of things, either the governing APC or the opposition PDP will produce the next governor of the state.
Notwithstanding the permutations in both parties, there are some critical factors that would shape and sway the votes for either of the parties.
Since the return to democratic rules in 1999, no political party has won back to back governorship elections in the state, a development attributed to the sophistication of voters and the unpredictability of the electoral process in the fountain of knowledge.
The ruling APC might be facing a Herculean task in reversing this trend, while the PDP will be hoping to launch a return to the Oke Ayaba Government House.
Another issue that has been generating serious talks and debates in the building up to the election is the issue of zoning. Since the creation of the state in 1996, the Central and the Northern senatorial districts have dominated the seat of power, leaving the southern area still struggling to rule the state after several failed attempts.
Stakeholders from the Southern senatorial district from both the APC and the PDP are determined and united in their agitation for the zone to produce the next governor in 2022. The former governors, Adeniyi Adebayo and Ayo Fayose are from the central, while Fayemi and Segun Oni have ruled the state from the Northern District.
If there is anything voters from the six local government areas in the Southern zone would be expecting from the political parties, it is for them to have their candidates from the zone. Either of the two leading parties whose candidate is from the zone stands a good chance, considering the preponderance of opinions from the zone.
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Unfortunately, as we approach the election, the unfolding political happenings in the two parties show that internal crises may be their undoing. Political watchers in the state are of the view that either of the parties that fail to conduct a genuine reconciliation and ensure unity among party members might be worsted in the election.
Internal squabble in APC lingers
The ruling APC has been enmeshed in protracted internal wrangling which is now reaching a dangerous dimension with groups and gladiators within the party battling over who becomes the party’s candidate for the 2022 poll.
The battle of wits has continued to take its toll on the fragile unity of the party with members expressing worry that if not nipped in the bud will be a serious setback for the ruling party in its bid to break the age-long hard riddle succession in the state.
At a time when it appears peace was returning to the party, the recent congresses of the APC in the state further exposed the lack of unity among party leaders and gladiators and escalated the crisis with allegations and counter allegations trailing the exercise.
The party is now clearly fractured into two major groups with one belonging to the governor and that of the aggrieved leaders under the newly formed South West Agenda for Asiwaju 2023(SWAGA) being headed by former minister of works, Senator Dayo Adeyeye.
Aside from Adeyeye, other notable leaders in the group include presidential aide, Senator Babafemi Ojudu; Senator Anthony Adeniyi SAN; Bimbo Daramola; Wole Oluyede; Oyetunde Ojo; and former speaker, Adewale Omirin among other bigwigs in the group.
Ahead of the congresses, the governor’s group had advanced consensus mode in electing the party officials for the ward, local government and the state level, the SWAGA group rejected this method and preferred the option A4 method. Armed with the fact that whoever has the structures of the party will clearly be in a poll position to determine the party’s flagbearer, both groups stood their ground but the governor’s side understandably got the structures across all the levels.
But days after the committee sent to the state by the national headquarters of the party supervised and conduct the state congress with the aspirants returned unopposed, the aggrieved leaders inaugurated what they described as parallel executives across the 177 wards, 16 local government areas and the state level.
Aside from this, the aggrieved stakeholders are currently before the Federal High Court urging the judiciary to quash the congress conducted by the group loyal to the governor and as well seeking the sack of governor Mai Mala Buni-led national caretaker committee of the party.
As parties to the suit await an end to the legal tussle, the two dominant groups within the party are back in trenches with strong permutation over who gets the party’s ticket for the governorship election. While some of the gladiators are still keeping the cards to their chest, a handful of them has declared their readiness to contest for the number one seat in the state.
Those who have declared intention include, former SDP presidential aspirant and elder statesman, Chief Reuben Famuyibo; second runners up in the 2018 governorship primary, Mr Kayode Ojo; Businessman, Chief Demola Popoola and House of Representatives member, Femi Bamisile. Interestingly, none of these aforementioned aspirants is associated with any of the groups within the party but pursuing their ambition by talking to the delegates and the party entire party members with the hope of getting the ticket of the party.
Cracks in Fayemi’s cabinet over the successor
According to findings by Sunday Tribune, those said to be eyeing the coveted seat from the governor’s camp are current Secretary to the State Government, Biodun Oyebanji; Chief of Staff, Biodun Omoleye; the Commissioner for Justice and Attorney General, Wale Fapohunda; the Commissioner for Infrastructure and Public Utilities, Bamidele Faparusi. Others include House of Representatives member, Yemi Adaramodu. Only Faparusi has publicly declared his intention to contest for the party’s ticket.
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On the other hand, the SWAGA group recently commenced an aggressive mobilisation drive across the council areas. The group is banking on the direct primary mode to dislodge the group belonging to the governor and sources close to the top hierarchy of SWAGA revealed that they are working on presenting a consensus aspirant ahead of the primaries already slated for January 22.
From all indications, Governor Fayemi would be deploying all in his political arsenal in a bid to install a worthy successor that would consolidate the legacies projects of the administration. Many believe that handing over power to a government of continuity will be one of Fayemi’s greatest achievements as a governor.
However, barely two months to the primary, there is tension within the governor’s caucus as he (Fayemi) has maintained a deafening silence on his succession plan with this development already polarising the hitherto united political family.
Lately, while some members are queuing behind Oyebanji, some are rooting for Omoleye(both from the Central) and others are clamouring for a southern candidate in Faparusi. It appears Fapohunda has lost out with the look of things due to what many party members described as his lack of political clout and popularity among the progressives.
Those at the forefront of the campaign for Oyebamiji, currently the SSG, are senior aides of the governor and that of his wife, Bisi Fayemi who many believe wields strong influence in the current administration.
Expectedly, this move is already generating rumpus within the governor’s cabinet, as others have openly rejected and debunked the alleged endorsement of the SSG who is from Ikogosi, in the Central senatorial district. First was the chief of staff, Omoleye who gathered party faithful informing them that Governor Fayemi has not endorsed anyone as his preferred candidate to be his successor.
He said, “You might have been hearing around that the governor has chosen someone as his successor. This is not true. The governor has not spoken in this regards. He is focused on finishing well and will not be distracted by rumours.
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“The governor is the leader of the party and he is the one in charge. Everyone should therefore remain united and support him because our focus is on how to win the coming local government election and the next year governorship poll.”
As if that is not enough and what could be seen as a demonstration of what to expect in weeks ahead within the cabinet, the commissioner for infrastructure and public utilities, Faparusi without mincing words told journalists that the party was heading towards monumental defeat if it fails to pick a southern candidate.
According to him, “As a senior official of this party, there has not been any forum where such (endorsement) has been discussed. Even, if this should be discussed, it would be a candidate from the South, not from any other zone outside of the South, because that is what can win us the next election.
“It is going to be in the best interest of political parties to ensure that the next governor and governorship candidates come from the South especially my own political party, APC. It will be a costly mistake if my party, APC, should do otherwise. I want our party to have a candidate who can win the forthcoming election on a free and fair basis. I don’t want us to pick a candidate by an error that we have to be struggling to win the election, having done a lot of work in the last three and half years to put the state back on the track of development.”
The reliable source within the government told our correspondent that, “If you are in this state in the last two weeks you will clearly see a wave of events in a direction as regards the coming election. Let me say that if senior and close appointees of the governor and his wife are openly going to town about someone’s aspiration, you should know that it is likely that the body language of the first family might have suggested the person in question.
“But I will advise the governor to tread softly on this issue as a leader of the party because it is already generating serious infighting and horse-trading within the cabinet. The governor should be decisive and come out openly without further delay on this issue in the interest of the APC.”
A battle of three camps in PDP
As it stands, the crisis within the PDP which has defied all reconciliation moves since the 2020 congresses has continued unabated as the gladiators have failed to sheathe their sword in the interest of the party’s unity.
The forthcoming governorship primaries will renew obviously the battle of wits between the major gladiators, namely former governor, Ayo Fayose, lawmaker representing Ekiti South, Senator Biodun Olujimi and lately the coming of the former governor, Chief Segun Oni. The duo of Olujimi and Oni are governorship aspirants while Fayose is vehement in his resolve to install one of his former commissioners as governor.
Even though the majority of delegates from the wards, LGA and the state level are all loyalists of Fayose, other leaders are battling to outwit him and his anointed aspirant in deciding the candidate for the governorship poll.
Already, the national leadership of the PDP had commenced the process leading to the primaries with the completion of sales of nomination and expression of interest forms and recently conducted a screening for the 17 aspirants. Even though the report of the screening committee headed by the former Kaduna State governor, Ahmed Makarfi has not been made public as of Friday, it was gathered that some aspirants mostly women were disqualified from participating in the primaries.
Those women who participated in the governorship screening include, Senator Olujimi, Mrs Olumide Ojo Olukemi Olubunmi (Ido/Osi), Mrs Arogundade Olutoyin (Ekiti East) Princess Adekemi Adewunmi (Efon). Others are Mrs Cecillia Ebiesuwa (Emure council), Mrs Adewumi Adesoye (Ado), Mrs Titilayo Owolabi Akerele (Ikole), Mrs Modupe Asaolu (Ekiti south-west) and Mrs Deborah Alo (Ido/Osi).
In the men category were, former governor Oni; former deputy governor, Professor Kolapo Olusola; former PDP State chairman and Fayose’s backed aspirant, Bisi Kolawole; former banker, Kayode Adaramodu; former National Assembly member, Wale Aribisala; former senatorial aspirant, Lateef Ajijola and the 2018 PDP deputy governorship candidate, Deji Ogunsakin.
Considering experience, network and general acceptability among party members, the contest might be among the trio of Oni, Kolawole and Olujimi and many political watchers have observed that most of the aspirants are not genuinely interested in picking the party’s ticket.
Rather the popular aspirants arranged to whittle down the votes and influence of other aspirants from their perceived strong holds during the primaries.
Osun APC and its internal ‘war’
Currently the ruling party in the state, APC is faced with some challenges. One of them is the ‘civil war’ within its fold, particularly as if touches on the tussle between the camp of the immediate past governor and currently Minister of Interior, Rauf Aregbesola and that of the incumbent, Gboyega Oyetola. Also, the resolve of the opposition PDP to sustain its newfound unity may prove a major headache for the governing party.
So deep is the crisis in APC that the two camps ran parallel congresses with the Oyetola camp not ready to yield an inch to Aregbesola as far as the battle for the soul of the party in the state is concerned. Violence has equally attended the fierce battle with the latest being the invasion of the venue of a meeting Aregbesola’s loyalists, The Osun Progressives (TOP), by gun-wielding men about two weeks ago.
Oyetola inherited an Osun State that was in a bad shape and a deep financial hole. Salaries were owed workers and pensioners were languishing and gratuities piled up.
But upon assumption of office, the governor announced his intention to ensure the state stops digging further in the hole it has found itself. Two months ago, the governor said he had not borrowed a dime to run the state since the assumption of office three years ago. He added that he has never failed to pay the salaries as well.
In what has been interpreted as a political jab against Aregbesola, the Oyetola-led APC government has been criticizing some of the poorly executed contracts in the state under his predecessor. Recently, the structural defects in some of the N16.6billion mega school projects of Aregbesola were exposed. At the beginning of his government, Oyetola has reversed some of the policies he inherited, including the needless merger of schools.
However, the Oyetola has received flaks from members of the opposition who see his expose on Aregbesola as a publicity stunt to hoodwink the Osun electorate. Such critics have often argued that Oyetola not only inherited the assets and liabilities of the state, but he was also part of the Aregbesola administration in which he served as Chief of Staff for eight years.
While there is no peace in Osun APC at the moment, no major hurdle appears to be on the way to the governor clinching the ticket of the party on Saturday, January 22. There are no visible challengers to his second term bid within the party.
Ahead of the crucial election next year, the governor has been basking in the euphoria of the rain of endorsements from various groups and bodies in the state, including the National Union of Road Transporter Workers (NURTW).
PDP: will this unity endure?
Until recently, stakeholders in Osun PDP were headed in a different direction. There were those who saw the current state working committee of the party as being brought about by the Adeleke family and would therefore not have anything to do with the executives. Some chieftains of the party in the state consequently approached the court to have them disbanded outright.
But circumstances of the last national convention of the party provided a window to resolve en bloc, all issues threatening the party ahead of the 2022 election.
A former and later factional chairman of the party, Soji Adagunodo and the incumbent, Sunday Bisi, both representing different interests in the party, had been at loggerheads.
The vacuum created by a former deputy governor of Oyo State and ex-Ambassador to Iran and Jordan, Taofeek Arapaja, who resigned as national vice chairman (South-West) and moved up in the hierarchy as Deputy National Chairman (South), gave Adagunodo an opportunity to fill the vacancy and consequently resolve the tussle in the party.
The peace meeting where the issues were resolved was held at the Okuku residence of former governor Olagunsoye Oyinlola who rallied all the stakeholders of the party for the meeting. At the moment, only Senator Ademola Adeleke, the party’s candidate in the past election, is visible as a governorship aspirant. Sunday Tribune gathered that the leaders of the party may have resolved to back only Adeleke. Should they follow through, a replay of the 2018 scenario may be witnessed in Adeleke versus Oyetola.
