2019: Elections:Tough Times For Saraki, Dogara, Others Over Defections Fallout

Defectors from the All Progressives Congress (APC) to the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) are facing tough times ahead of next year’s polls. The euphoria that greeted the gale of defections has whittled down, leaving many of the defectors with a future that is anything but certain. The pertinent question is: what future awaits them in their new political abode, having repudiated the past?

Many believe that many of the defectors, especially the returnees to the PDP, have predictable and inevitable hurdles to cross as they continue with their survival games. Judging by ongoing developments, they may have started realising that a huge gap exists between expectation and reality.

In their new port of call, some of the serial defectors have started paying the price. Their former party, the APC, is not sleeping on guard. Its national chairman, Comrade Adams Oshiomhole, has not relented in turning the heat on the defectors, thereby putting them on the defensive. There is also caution in the PDP, owing to the antecedents of the defectors and their penchant for jumping ship.

According to observers, there are six major challenges confronting the gang of defectors. For the heavyweight defectors, it is a moment of emotional wrenching as they are leaving a formidable ruling party for an opposition platform whose image they had dented when they disowned the platform four years ago.

Despite their varied political experience, they are not insulated from miscalculation and summersault. The defectors, in the view of analysts, may have uncritically confused public yearning for more dividends of democracy under the Buhari administration with the desperate push for regime change by unpatriotic elements who have nostalgic feelings for ‘business as usual.’

The uncoordinated defection project may have created division among the defectors, based on their antagonistic ambitions. All the prominent defectors—Senate President Bukola Saraki, Sokoto State Governor Aminu Tambuwal and Senator Rabiu Kwakwanso—harbour presidential ambition in the PDP. Yet, they seem to be ruling out consensus candidacy.

Although PDP National Chairman Prince Uche Secondus has assured the defectors of equal opportunities, those who waited behind in the party in 2015 and consequently became victims of their earlier defections are fighting back and resisting their integration, thereby compounding the challenge of harmonisation between old and new structures. To the old members, it is improper to reward those who crippled the PDP in the past with presidential ticket, to the detriment of loyal chieftains who have been labouring to rebuild the party.

Also, there is the burden of perception. Apart from suffering the indignity of being unfairly perceived as serial defectors, many Nigerians have continued to probe the motivation for the defection. The realisation that personal motive, and not national interest, is the driving force, may have made some of the defectors to lose public sympathy, goodwill and solidarity.

The outcome of by-elections, particularly in Katsina, Bauchi and Kano states, did not reflect any negative consequence of defection. The fact that APC won the by-elections with wide margins have increased the confidence of its leaders. Mocking the defectors, Presidential Senior Special Assistant Garba Sheu said while they claimed that APC was no more popular, it has continued to win elections.

Saraki

Amid the parliamentary hide and seek game, the Senate has not been able to reconvene to consider the budget for electoral funding proposed by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). When the Senate eventually reconvenes, there may be uproar as the battle line is drawn between pro and anti-impeachment forces.

Although Saraki is still the undisputed Kwara political leader, the unusual has been happening in recent times in his domain. Aggrieved Kwarans have protested against his defection, saying that they were still in love with President Buhari. His defection has also led to counter-defections. The Kwara PDP chairman, Iyiola Oyedepo, and some chieftains hurriedly left the party for the APC because, according to them, they loathed being in the same party with the kingpin. Erstwhile PDP Publicity Secretary Rex Olawoye said: “Saraki and his cronies have been in the saddle of leadership of the state in the past 15 years, with nothing to show for it.”

Saraki, who has indicated that he may join the presidential race, has intensified his consultations with prominent leaders across the country. He has visited former President Ibrahim Babangida in Minna, the Niger State capital. He has also gone to Abeokuta, capital of Ogun State, to confer with former President Olusegun Obasanjo. Instructively, while receiving a delegation of youths, Obasanjo, who peeped into 2019, spoke with a benefit of hindsight. He said it will not be easy to take power from an incumbent who is interested in a second term.

Saraki is protective of Kwara, his stronghold. His structure remains formidable. If he vies for the Senate again in 2019, he will dwarf his opponents on poll day. He is poised to install the next Kwara governor, although he should be prepared for pockets of nomination crises in his camp.

But what is Saraki’s chance of securing the PDP presidential ticket at the primary? He is qualified to run for the highest office in the land. His ambition falls within the framework of fundamental human rights. But will his perception as a Yoruba northerner not be an obstacle? What is the assurance that he will beat other aspirants during the shadow poll? If he emerges as the PDP presidential flag bearer, can he beat President Buhari at the poll in February, next year?

Dogara

Judging by the results of the senatorial by-election in Bauchi South District, many believe that APC can survive without the Speaker. In his native Bogoro/Dass/Tafawa Balewa Constituency, the party won in two councils, namely Dass and Tafawa Balewa, and lost only in Bogoro where Dogara hails from. According to observers, the outcome of the by-election shows that APC is still in control of Bauchi. APC candidate, Lawan Gumau, won the Bauchi South by-election with 119,489 votes. According to the Returning Officer, Prof. Ahmed Sarkin-Pagam, he defeated eight other candidates, including the flag bearer of the PDP, Ladan Salihu, who polled 50,256. The margin is wide. Interestingly, former Governor Isa Yuguda, who ran on the platform of Green Party of Nigeria (GPN), also lost his deposit. He got 33,079 votes. If the votes of the PDP and GPN are combined, it will still be a far cry. The result affirmed that Bauchi is an APC stronghold.

Also, Bogoro/Dass/Tafawa Balewa Federal Constituency, which Dogara represents in the Lower Chamber, is now polarised. If he returns to the PDP, the Speaker will be in control of Bogoro. It is a potent but narrow base. If he waits behind in APC, analysts contend that Dogara would still need APC to win Bogoro in next year’s polls.

Before the election, APC had lost two senators—Isa Misau and Nazif Gamawa—to the PDP. Their defection did not create a band wagon effect during the poll. The result may be a signpost to next year’s election. Indeed, the Bauchi poll was full of drama. As women cast their votes, they also chanted the usual slogan of Sai Baba, echoing their nostalgic commitment to President Buhari and readiness to vote for him in February, next year. In 2015, during the governorship poll, APC won in 19 of the 20 local government areas in Bauchi State. Instructively, despite being a candidate, the local government voted for the PDP, meaning that the Speaker could not exert influence in Bogoro.

In the said election, Governor Mohammed Abubakar garnered 654,934 votes to emerge winner. His rival, Mohammed Jatau of the PDP polled 282,650 votes. At the presidential election, President Buhari got 931,598 votes. Former President Goodluck Jonathan of the PDP got 86,085 votes. If Dogara defects and teams up with Misau and Gamawa in the PDP, can they alter the trend and pull the rug off the feet of the president and governor in Bauchi?

Dogara has a governorship ambition. He is battling with his limitations and constraints. He is a Christian from a predominantly Muslim state. Governor Abubakar is interested in second term. Thus, the coast is not clear for the Speaker in the APC. But, if he defects to the PDP, can he also get the governorship ticket?

To analysts, Dogara also have narrow options. If he does not defect, he will be re-elected into the House of Representatives. If APC wins next year’s polls, there is no evidence that he will be re-elected as Speaker. If he vies for the Senate, the primary will be a bone of contention between him and the new senator, Gumau. If Dogara defects to the PDP and gets its governorship ticket, can he defeat Abubakar? If he gets the senatorial ticket, can he defeat Gumau or anybody that emerges the APC flag bearer? If he is the PDP House of Representatives candidate, can he defeat his APC counterpart? If he is re-elected as a PDP member of the House of Representatives, can he become the Speaker? If PDP wins the presidential election, the Senate President is likely to also come from the North and the Speaker from the South. Can the zoning formula be altered because of Dogara?

Ortom

Benue State Governor Sam Ortom defected from APC to the PDP in frustration and confusion. Even, in the PDP, there is no respite for the embattled governor. His defection has not changed the tide. Close watchers contend that his defection has not ended the ineptitude, poor governance and non-payment of salaries. It has not erased the effects of farmers/herdsmen clashes.

The Benue State Government House is divided. Ortom’s deputy, Benson Abounu, is not on the same page with his boss over the defection. He is loyal to the party leader, Senator George Akume. But a source said he may be prevailed upon to join his boss in the PDP to keep his job. “If the deputy defects, his body may be in the PDP while his soul remains with the APC,” added the source.

Ortom left the APC because he knew that he would not be considered for re-nomination. The party had complained that his style had infuriated the people who endorsed him in 2015. In distress, the governor acknowledged that he got a red card. In the APC, he lacked the structure. He was the puppet of those who controlled the platform

[b]There are puzzles. Having defected to the PDP, can Ortom, former council boss, former minister and governor of Benue, hurriedly build a structure? Will the PDP give its 2019 ticket to the governor? Will PDP governorship aspirants step down for Ortom?

The morning, they say, shows the day. Otorm’s defection has created division in Benue PDP. Following his defection, 12 Benue PDP governorship aspirants came together to checkmate his ambition. In their view, Ortom does not deserve to reap from where he did not sow. After a meeting in Makurdi, the state capital, they resolved to resist hijackers. They are opposed to harmonisation based on an inexplicable 60/40 formula, allegedly being proposed by the camp of the governor, warning that it could trigger litigation and crisis. They have also demanded a free and fair primary on a level playing field. They urged party leaders, including former Senate Presidents Iyorchia Ayu and David Mark, and former Governor Gabriel Suswam, to avert the looming danger of party hijack. The aggrieved aspirants are David Ker, Felix Atume, Terhemen Tarzoor, David Iorhemba, John Tondu, Paul Orhii, Richard Gbawuan, Simon Anchaver, Stephen Hwande, Gabriel Nyitse, Kenneth Iyo and Joseph Iorapuu.[/b]

Tambuwal

What is the chance of Tambuwal at the PDP presidential primary? His opponents include Gombe Sate Governor Ibrahim Dankwanbo, veteran contender and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, former Governors Sule Lamido (Jigawa State), Rabiu Kwakwanso (Kano), Ibrahim Shekarau (Kano), Ahmed Makarfi (Kaduna), Attahiru Bafarawa (Sokoto), Datti Ahmed, and Taminu Turaki.

Lamido and Makarfi have been firing salvos at Tambuwal and other defectors. While Makarfi, toeing the line of Benue PDP chieftains, has described them as hijackers, Lamido has warned of the grave consequence of rewarding those who once destroyed the party with its presidential ticket.

The governor of Sokoto State has returned to the drawing board. He is targeting delegates from far and near. Since the presidential aspirants are from the North, they will share the votes in the region. A source said he has the support of Rivers State Nyesom Wike. This may not guarantees a bloc vote from the Southsouth. Can he penetrate the Southwest PDP? Time will tell. Is the Southeast sure for him? It will require a lot of wheeling and dealing. If he dangles the carrot of running mate to the Southeast, the Southsouth may be livid.

Can Tambuwal get the ticket? If he gets it, can he defeat President Buhari at the poll?

During the week, a competent source said Tambuwal may unfold his aspiration for second term, if the odds at the PDP presidential primary will not favour him.

Kwankwaso

Mixed reactions trailed his defection to the PDP. A section of the party saw it as a home-coming. Another section viewed it as the return of a partisan foe. Initially, Shekarau was skeptical. There has been no love relationship between the two former governors. As the arrowhead of the APC in Kano, Shekarau had defected in protest when Kwakwanso defected to the party in 2014 and he was pronounced the leader because he was an incumbent governor. The move, in Shekarau’s view, smacked of injustice. To prevent a reoccurrence or resumption of hostilities, Kwankwaso visited Shekarau to iron out their differences. Both promised to work together. But, subsequent events have shown than that it was a mere agreement on paper.

According to sources, Kano PDP is now facing the challenge of harmonising the structures. While there is the need to give Kwankwaso and his group a sense of belonging, the old party members are afraid that the group may dominate the platform and dictate the tune during nominations for 2019 polls. At issue is the alleged quest by the Kwankwaso group to produce the governorship candidate, a move that has not gone down well with Shekarau. This has sparked off crisis, ahead of the shadow poll.

Future Kano elections will be interesting. In 2015, president Buhari won the state. Can the duo of Kwakwanso and Shekarau alter the trend in 2019?

Kwankwaso has been traversing the six zones of the federation to market himself to PDP chieftains. There is a colossal effect of status change. As governor, he wielded influence and had enormous resources at his disposal. He came second at the APC presidential primary, beating Atiku to the third position. Feelers suggest that he will get bloc votes from Kano delegates during the primary, if Shekarau opts out of the race. In the three zones in the South, he may get the votes of negligible Hausa/Fulani delegates.

His defection may not confer a special advantage on him. During the recent Katsina North senatorial by-election, Kwakwanso was full of bravado. He led the PDP campaign to the district. He campaigned with vigour. At the close of the poll, the APC candidate, Ahmed Babba-Kaita, defeated his PDP rival and biological brother, Kabir Babba-Kaita. His presence did not swing the pendulum of victory in the direction of the PDP. What is the assurance that the pattern will change in next year’s polls?

Akpabio

Akpabio’s defection shook the Akwa Ibom PDP where he was held in high esteem as leader. But there is a gap in the defection. The PDP chapter has reacted, saying that a tree does not make a forest. Only few parliamentarians defected along with him. Many prominent PDP leaders have shunned the defection virus. The governor, Udom Emmanuel, who Akpabio installed in 2015, appears not to be leaving anything to chances. Southsouth PDP governors are rallying round their colleague. Traditionally, Akwa Ibom is a PDP stronghold. Will Akpabio’s defection herald power shift in the state next year?

Also, Akpabio faces some challenges in the APC. His announcement as the new Akwa Ibom APC leader did not go down well with his foes who had earlier left the PDP for the APC in protest against the former governor’s alleged highhandedness. They include his predecessor, Obong Victor Attah, Isima Ekere, former Petroleum Minister Don Etiebet, Umana Umana, former Minister of State for the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Senator John Akpadoedohen, and Senator Alluyous Etuk. Although he has tendered apology and asked for forgiveness, he is still being viewed with suspicion. Umana was removed by the governor as Secretary to Government to pave the way for Emmanuel. Ekere was impeached as deputy governor.

Many have argued that leaning on federal might, Akpabio may be able to deliver the state to the APC. But the contest will not be a walk over. Time will tell whether he is the undisputed political champion from Akwa Ibom.

Dino and others

Tough times may also await Senator Dino Melaye, either in the APC or PDP. He is out of the race for the Kogi East senatorial ticket in the APC where Senator Smart Adeyemi and other aspirants are jostling for the ticket. In APC, Governor Yahaya Bello and the senator do not see eye to eye. If he returns to the PDP, he will meet hostility from PDP members, who were pained by his defection to the APC in 2014. It is doubtful if the PDP will be disposed to giving him the ticket without incurring much risk. Zoning is a factor in Kogi West and indigenes are emotionally attached to the arrangement.

For Senators Isa Misau and Nazif Gamawa from Katsina, defection to the PDP was a gamble. In Oyo State, where Senator Sumonu had defected, it meant a journey to political oblivion. His party, ADC, is new and may not be able to withstand the PDP and APC arsenal.

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